Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
