Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
